EVが増えるデメリット２つ　Negative Constructive

どうも、メンディ先生です。

HEnDA主催『第15回全国高校生英語ディベート大会 “Online”』用の原稿です。
大会要項はこちら　http://henda.global/seminar/

論題：日本政府は，（ハイブリッド車も含む）化石燃料車の製造と販売を2035年までに禁止すべきである。
Resolved: That the Japanese Government should ban production and sales of fossil-fueled cars, including hybrid cars, by 2035.

DA1はパーツ減少による失業ではなく、自動化が進みやすいから、というリンクに変えました。
DA2は自動車重量が重くなるので、非排気ガス由来の汚染物質が増えるという話です。

DA同志の相性が良くなく、工場が減れば減るだけ汚染物質も減りそうだったので、DA2に合わせてDA1のリンクを変更しました。
自分の議論の相性を考えておくのも必要ですね。

DA1: More Jobless
a) Uniqueness
Now in Japan, 5.5 million people work for car industries, because engine needs a lot of manpower.
According to Researcher 橋爪 吉博 2017,
Quote) 日本自動車工業会によると、わが国の自動車の部品・製造関連の雇用者は約80万人、販売・関連サービスまで含めると自動車関連の雇用者は約550万人に上る。(Unquote
http://ieei.or.jp/2017/10/opinion171005/2/

b) Link
1. After plan, electric cars will increase. They don't need manpower, but robots. So, 1.3% of jobs will be cut in car industries every year.
According to the Financial Times 2020,
Q) The report also predicts that the assembly of electric vehicles, which contain far fewer components, will become more automated and require less manpower than the production of petrol or diesel models. It adds that jobs will also be lost in mechanical and automotive engineering, technical development and design, and metal production. Last year cost-cutting by German carmakers contributed to a 1.3 per cent drop in the auto industry workforce, according to the Ifo economic institute, which said the transformation to electric vehicles was already weighing on Europe’s largest economy. (UQ
https://www.ft.com/content/c80707b2-361d-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
2. In calculation, 71 thousand people will be jobless.

c) Impact
1. When people become jobless, they feel powerless, loneliness and hopeless, then commit suicide.
According to Prof. 舞田敏彦 2019
Q)この式の係数から、失業率（X）が1％上がると、自殺率（Y）は1.949上がると推計できる。人口を1億2000万人と仮定すると、実数でみて年間の自殺者が2339人増える計算になる。2017年の労働力人口は約6720万人なので、このうちの1％、つまり67万人の雇用がなくなると2339人の自殺者が出る恐れがあるということになる。(UQ
https://www.newsweekjapan.jp/stories/world/2019/01/post-11515.php

2. In calculation, there will be 1 suicide per 300 jobless people. So, there will be 240 suicides a year.
 
DA2: Heavier cars make more pollution
a) Uniqueness
1. Now, the total weight of cars in Japan is getting lighter.
According to Viknesh Vijayenthiran 2008,
Q) Mazda isn't the only Japanese carmaker focused on vehicle weight reduction. Honda, Nissan and Toyota have also made lighter cars a top priority as they scramble to boost fuel economy and cut carbon emissions, reports Automotive News.(UQ
https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1023602_japanese-carmarkers-focused-on-weight-reduction

b) Link
Electric cars are 24% heavier. So, after the plan, particulate matter, in short PM, will increase.
According to Green Car Congress 2016,
Q) Further, they found that EVs are on average 24% heavier than equivalent ICEVs. For example, the Ford Focus Electric and gasoline-powered Ford Focus hatchback have almost exactly the same specifications; the EV, however is 219 kg heavier. Likewise, the Honda Fit EV is 335 kg heavier than the conventional version; the Kia Soul EV is 311 kg heavier than the regular Kia Soul, etc. A 2013 study by a team at Paul Scherrer Institute found that an increase in weight of 280 kg will result in a PM10 increase of 1.1 mg per vehicle-kilometer (mg/vkm) for tire wear, 1.1 mg/vkm for brake wear and 1.4 mg/vkm for road wear. For PM2.5, these values are 0.8 mg/vkm, 0.5 mg/vkm and 0.7 mg/vkm for tire, brake and road wear, respectively. (UQ
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/04/20160418-pm10.html

c) Impact
1. Air pollution causes 60,000 deaths in Japan, every year.
According to the Japan Times 2019,
Q) At least 60,000 premature deaths occur from air pollution in Japan every year, according to a long-term, multicenter study published in The Lancet in 2017. (UQ
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2019/05/11/environment/reading-air-tokyo-still-work-air-pollution/

2. Japan should not leave anyone behind. There must be another solution.
According to the United Nations 2018,
Q) Not only are people and countries being left behind, but in many different contexts they are being pushed further behind by a variety of forces, including globalization, technological developments, climate change and other forms of environmental degradation that all lead to loss of access to land, livelihoods and jobs. In many cases, policies, legislation and investments directed at meeting certain development goals fail to take into account negative impacts on other sectors, groups of people and countries as well as on future generations. (UQ
https://undocs.org/pdf?symbol=en/E/2018/33