The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI ～Ray Kurzweil
Today I watched the following TED Talk given by Ray Kurzweil, who wrote "The Singularity Is Near" in 2005, and the subsequent version, "The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI," this year. His TED Talke impressed me very much, so I was eager to read his book, and bought it by kindle.
In this note, I would like to write down what he says in the TED Talk and in his newest book chapter by chapter(today is only for introduction chapter), and after that, I would like to write how I feel and consider.
Summary of the TED Talk
Ray Kurzweil has been dedicating in AI for 60 years
At the Dartmouth conference in 1956, most people didn't know about AI and were skeptical of it, thinking it would never happen.
But with the recent rapid growth of AI capabilities, people are beginning to believe that AGI will come true in several years, and he predicts it will happen by 2029.
He explains the reasoning by showing the increase in computer power year by year.
He emphasizes that the best use case for AI is in the medical field. By using AI, we can explore millions of protein patterns for developing new medicines, as demonstrated by the Moderna vaccine.
And he explains that energy problems will be solved by using solar power, which is currently utilized at only 1/10,000 of its potential, with the help of AI.
In addition, he refers to the concept of longevity escape velocity, suggesting that thanks to advancements in AI, we may reverse aging and be able to live happier lives.
Summary of the Book
Introduction
He wrote "The Singularity Is Near" in 2005. In this book, he proposed that the singularity (expanding our intelligence and consciousness, and difficult to comprehend) will occur around 2045.
He uses the term "singularity" as a metaphor, not in a strictly mathematical or physical sense.
He consider our brains will connect directly to computers (brain-computer interface) , and Artificial intelligence and our Biological Intelligence will converge.
In 2005, most people didn't understand his intent; moreover, they criticized it. But over the past 40 years, remarkable progress has occurred in all technical fields, especially after the appearance of GPT-4 and Gemini, which was made possible thanks to the increasing power of computers.
Compared to 2005, we are now much closer to the singularity and are said to be in the final stretch. Even though we don't know what life will be like after the singularity, we must ensure that it happens safely.
Chapter 1 :Where are we in the six stage?
He divided the history of the universe into six stages to consider the next stage because each stage creates the next by using the information from the previous one.
The First Epoch is the birth of the laws of physics and chemistry, when atoms formed from electrons circling around the core of protons and neutrons. The proper strength of gravity made it possible to create intelligent life like us.
The Second Epoch began several billion years ago, making living creature life.
The Third Epoch saw the development of animal brains, which could store and process information.
In the Forth Epoch, animals used their higher-level cognitive ability, as well as thumbs, to translate thoughts into complex actions. And we were able to perceive, recall, and evaluate information. But compare to our biological progress, digital computation progress is much faster
In the Fifth Epoch, the brain-computer interface will be developed, merging our brains with digital technology, allowing for more complex and abstract cognition.
The Sixth Epoch is where our intelligence will spread throughout the universe.
The Turing test, proposed by Alan Turing in 1950 in his paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence," is essentially an examination to determine whether AI can understand and replicate human thought in a particular area.
We are currently in the Fourth Epoch, and after passing the Turing test in many areas around 2029, we will enter the Fifth Epoch.
In the 2030s, by connecting to the cloud, we can expand our intelligence to machine intelligence.In this sense, AI are not our competitors.
By around 2045, we will reach the Singularity (very roughly).
Chapter 2 :Reinventing Intelligence
When it comes to transition from animals with biological brains to the merging with digital one, it means entering in the Fifth Epoch.
To understand the mechanism, we must first look back to the birth of AI. It is worth studying neuroscience, the cerebrum, and the neocortex.
In 1950, Alan Turing, who was famous for "Turing Test", asked the question "Can machines think?"
He sees the development of AI today as analogous to the history of the universe from its birth. The birth of the universe, the development of life, and the emergence of mammals took time, but it was accelerated.
Explains the importance of the role of the human neocortex and especially the cerebellum.
As an action is repeated again and again, the brain adapts to make it easier and more subconscious, which applies to AI as well.
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