2024/7/17 投資ネタ

UG
#PGR upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette at 245
-損失率低下/保険料収入増加
-経費率が鈍化する
#VLO upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho at 175
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--北米の沿岸部のｴｸｽﾎﾟｰｼﾞｬｰ、二次製品低、ｶﾞｿﾘﾝﾏｰｼﾞﾝ高い
#HES upgrades Hess to Outperform, sees 16% on deal close at 172
-買収完了によるｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
#UNH upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies at 647
-MLRの圧力ある中でもEPS改善
-2025の成長見通しが改善
-会員数ｼｪｱも拡大見込み

DG
#FIVE downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi at 92
#FIVE downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley at 100
#FIVE downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist at 89
#FIVE downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays at 90
#FIVE downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI at 113
#FIVE downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho 85
#FIVE downgrades Five Below on uncertainty after CEO change
-CEO後退
-Q2SSSが-6～-7%:7月後半から客足鈍化
--販促も増加見込み
--店舗の効率性も悪化
-ﾏｰﾁｬﾝﾀﾞｲｼﾞﾝｸﾞに問題あり
#CVX downgraded to Market Perform ahead of takeover at Bernstein at 167
-原油価格下落懸念
#SCHW downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen at 71
-BS縮小によるﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽ縮小の可能性
#QCOM downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC at 200
#TFC downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird at 45
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--NIIの改善なども織込み済
#SEDG downgraded to Sell from Hold at DZ Bank at 24
#MS downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--資本市場の正常化はまだ時間がかかる
#MRO downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
-ｺﾓ価格を反映
-COPとの合併が停止していることもﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#VALE downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
-鉄鉱石需要が中国で鈍化

earnings
#ASML
〇:Q2売上・EPS
×:Q3売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ・
-ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ+11%YoY/新規受注+24%YoY
-中国向け売上41%
-AI需要で2Hも回復継続
#ELV
#SYF
#JNJ
〇:Q2売上・EPS
×:FY24売上g・EPSg
#CFG
#USB
#ALLY
-引当はYoYで悪化、QoQで改善
--QoQでNCOが減少、引当は増加
#PLD

個別株
#VFC VFC sells the Supreme business to EssilorLuxottca for $1.5B - SA

TP関連
#GOOG BMO Capital Raises Alphabet PT to $222 from $215 on AI Optimism for Search and YouTube
-検索ｼｪｱ拡大
--繰り返し検索行動とﾁｬｯﾄﾎﾞｯﾄの普及
-YouTubeもTikTokからｼｪｱ奪取
-GCPも企業のﾏﾙﾁｸﾗｳﾄﾞの採用で伸びる
#GOOG price target raised to $206 from $200 at BofA
-AIで使用率増加
-広告収入も安定
#AMZN | Needham Raises PT on Amazon to $210 from $205, Highlights Twitch as $46B Hidden Gem
-AIでｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有、ﾏｰｼﾞﾝも拡大中
-Twitchの価値を再評価
#AMZN Goldman Sachs on $AMZN raised PT $250
-ﾏｰｹｯﾄﾌﾟﾚｲｽのﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
-AWSの成長再加速
-広告の成長
#TSLA Barclays Raises price Target to $225 from $180
-2Q Gross Margin 16%見込み
--QoQで40bpの悪化:値下げ/FSDの影響
-ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰｽﾄﾚｰｼﾞが自動車の弱さを相殺
#BAC price target raised to $49 from $43 at Barclays
-ﾌｨｰ収入好調/ｺｽﾄがｲﾝﾗｲﾝ
-NIIも増加見込み
-配当引上げ
#MS price target raised by several firms
-ﾄﾚｰﾃﾞｨﾝｸﾞ/IBD/WMすべてﾋﾞｰﾄ
-総じﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽ全般堅調
-NIIの見通しは懸念

#JBHT price target lowered by several firms
-ｲﾝﾀｰﾓﾀﾞﾙの利回り見通しが暗い
-Dedicatedの低い成長率
-ICSの損失
-最近の契約更改でﾏｰｼﾞﾝに下押し圧力継続
#SCHW price target lowered by several firms
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄの恩恵でﾋﾞｰﾄ
-見通し引下げ
--sweep cashの減少
-自社株買いも減少
#PNC price target raised by several firms
-FY24 NIIとｺｽﾄの見通しが改善
--債券の洗い替えの恩恵
#UNH price target raised by several firms
-FY25のﾒﾃﾞｨｹｱの見通しを引き上げ
-ﾄﾗﾝﾌﾟの勝利も追い風
#PGR price target raised by several firms
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大/PIF成長率も良好
-FY25以降のEPS上振れ余地も有
#HLT #MAR TP raised at Barclays
-米国のRevPARは成長、EBITDA上振れ
#HSY Citi cuts Hershey target, opens 'negative catalyst watch'
-SSSﾐｽの可能性が高い
-2Hの売上下振れﾘｽｸもあり
#KHC price target lowered to $38 from $42 at Citi
-Q2の下振れとｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽｶｯﾄ予想
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸも弱い需要を示唆
#CZR #MGM preview at JMP Securities
-売上は伸びるが、ｺｽﾄ増を打ち返せない
-客単価は安定だが、低所得者層は減速
-天候要因、ｺｽﾄのインフレ圧力
#BALL price target lowered to $61 from $64 at Wells Fargo
-2Hの回復期待懸念
--ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑが回復しない
#MA Citi opens 'positive catalyst watch' on MasterCard into earnings
#V Citi opens 'positive catalyst watch' on Visa into earnings
-ｲﾝﾗｲﾝから小幅ﾋﾞｰﾄ見込み
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが魅力的
#TEAM price target lowered to $225 from $245 at Morgan Stanley
-マクロの逆風でﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大が困難
-ｸﾗｳﾄﾞｿﾘｭｰｼｮﾝは過小評価されている
#RIVN price target raised to $17 from $13 at Morgan Stanley
-Tier1ｻﾌﾟﾗｲﾔｰのﾃｯｸﾊﾟｰﾄﾅｰとしての可能性
-FY25の粗利益率が7%を超える可能性
#ANET price target raised to $432 from $349 at KeyBanc
-IT VARｻｰﾍﾞｲ:Q1並かやや悪化している可能性
#CRWD #PANW price target lowered at KeyBanc
-IT VARｻｰﾍﾞｲ:Q1並かやや悪化している可能性
-ﾏｸﾛ環境の悪化でIT予算が前回から減額
#WMT price target raised to $82 from $75 at KeyBanc
-生鮮、Eｺﾏ、一般消費財でシェア拡大
#CRUS #MCHP #ON #QCOM #QRVO #SWKS #TXN price target raised at Susquehanna
-PCの出荷委打数見通し引き上げ
-Q2は予想よりややよい見込
-AI PCは2Hの出荷を加速させない見込み
-ｽﾏﾎ出荷は+4.5%で予想よりも良い
#LUV price target lowered to $19 from $26 at TD Cowen
-RASMを伸ばす方法がない
-FY24/25のEPSにﾀﾞｳﾝｻｲﾄﾞﾘｽｸ有
#UAL price target raised to $80 from $65 at TD Cowen
-2QEPSは問題なし
-UnitedNext戦略のﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑも問題無
#KMX price target raised to $95 from $85 at Wedbush
-CAFが改善中
--与信引締めの恩恵
#FTNT price target lowered to $69 from $73 at Morgan Stanley
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ、ｻｰﾍﾞｲ:Q2の下振れを示唆
-ﾈｯﾄﾜｰｸ関連は弱く、ﾌｧｲﾔｰｳｫｰﾙも2025途中まで更改ﾆｰｽﾞ小

マクロ・債券
(米国)
米、対中半導体規制でさらに厳しいルール検討と同盟国に警告－関係者
US HOUSING STARTS CHANGE MOM ACTUAL 3% (FORECAST 1.8%, PREVIOUS -5.5%)
US BUILDING PERMITS NUMBER ACTUAL 1.446M (FORECAST 1.4M, PREVIOUS 1.399M)
(欧州)
EUROZONE CPI YOY FINAL ACTUAL 2.5% (FORECAST 2.5%, PREVIOUS 2.5%)
(その他)
NEW ZEALAND CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.3% (FORECAST 3.4%, PREVIOUS 4.0%)
ANZ BANK: RBNZ TO CUT RATES IN NOVEMBER INSTEAD OF FEBRUARY
UK PPI INPUT PRICES YOY ACTUAL -0.4% (FORECAST 1.1%, PREVIOUS -0.1%)
UK PPI INPUT PRICES MOM ACTUAL -0.8% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.0%)
UK CPI YOY ACTUAL 2% (FORECAST 1.9%, PREVIOUS 2.0%)
UK CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.5% (FORECAST 3.4%, PREVIOUS 3.5%)
コモ
MAERSK - THE RED SEA DISRUPTIONS HAVE EXTENDED BEYOND FAR EAST-EUROPE ROUTES TO THE ENTIRE OCEAN NETWORK
Maersk CEO: The #RedSea disruptions have extended beyond Far East-Europe routes to the entire ocean network.
There are multiple reasons behind the domino impact. First, hubs in Asia are being impacted by congestion across key ports, causing delays and bottlenecks to ripple through the entire system. Second, ocean networks have been reorganized with vessels being moved to different regions to meet demand for capacity better. This has led to a widening global impact that has affected regions that weren’t originally directly affected by the Red Sea disruption.
Rising US rate cut optimism steers gold to all-time high - Reuters