友人とシェアするための翻訳記事（すぐディリート予定）

**September 11, 2022, 04:50**

**The Yen Depreciation (As of September 2022)**

Many people in various industries are troubled by this. Some express sentiments like "Japan is finished," and others lament, "The yen's value has dropped by XX%!" However, I see this as an opportunity for Japan's recovery.

Foreign exchange rates can have significant global impacts when they fluctuate sharply over a short period, so I've been closely monitoring the situation, particularly regarding the yen. I have some thoughts on this matter, so I've decided to write an article. This is purely my own speculation with no basis, just a whimsical tale, but it might be somewhat interesting to read. So, please read it with that in mind.

**The Mysterious "Yen"**

It is common knowledge among financial professionals that the yen is a unique and rare currency in the foreign exchange market. Usually, when a significant disaster, incident, or war occurs or seems likely to occur, the value of that country's currency generally decreases. However, in the case of the yen, it increases. It also rises when the US, unrelated to Japan, goes to war or experiences a terrorist attack, and even when it comes to issues in the Middle East.

Financial professionals make efforts to minimize the depreciation of their assets by purchasing items of universal value during economic crises. Gold is a prime example of such items. National currencies can become almost worthless due to inflation or can suddenly become mere pieces of paper. Items with inherent value, like gold, rarely experience sudden value changes.

The value of a currency is guaranteed by the government or the bank that issues it. If they can no longer guarantee it or if the issuing government or bank ceases to exist, the currency becomes nothing more than paper with printed pictures and numbers. Therefore, people buy gold while the currency still has value and exchange it for other currencies or newly circulated currencies when the original currency becomes worthless to avoid losing their entire wealth. The yen has been treated almost like gold. Despite starting as a fixed rate of 360 yen after the war, it surpasses the US dollar, the number one hard currency. When I asked knowledgeable people why this happens, I never received a satisfactory answer.

**The Ukraine Conflict**

Now, in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the yen is experiencing unprecedented depreciation. It is said to be due to "high US dollar interest rates" or "Japan's territorial issues with Russia," but if that were the case, the yen should have similarly depreciated in the past. Many traders likely suffered significant losses by going long on the dollar-yen early in the Ukraine crisis. Clearly, the market's movements differ from before. If the yen were to depreciate due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the yen shouldn't have appreciated during the Great East Japan Earthquake. At that time, the yen's interest rates were not particularly high. Essentially, the current depreciation suggests that "the rules have changed."

**The Reason for Yen Appreciation I Suspected**

As mentioned above, I found it strange that the yen appreciated every time there was a crisis in or around Japan, and I wasn't convinced by the experts' explanations. So, out of curiosity, I kept an eye on the charts even though I didn't trade. After being able to view charts on the internet, I looked at them in more detail. Gradually, I started to think that the yen appreciation during Japan's crises was an economic attack. Over time, I witnessed numerous instances where real-world crises synchronized with chart crises, leading me to believe that those causing the crises and those shorting the dollar-yen were the same, even without solid evidence.

**Example 1: North Korean Missile Crisis**

North Korea's missile launches have become scarce recently, but there was a time when they launched more than ten missiles a year, raising concerns about North Korea's economic situation. The market would respond to these launches by appreciating the yen, and the market's reaction became quicker with each launch. The launches typically occurred between 5 to 7 AM, a time when most people in Japan are still asleep or getting ready for the day. However, the market would react simultaneously with news and alerts. It's possible that North Koreans were engaged in insider trading to raise funds. If they shorted the dollar-yen before the launch and secured their positions after the market moved, they could make a significant profit. This scenario aligns with the fierce criticism of then-Prime Minister Abe by the liberals. On days when missiles were launched, I noticed almost no tweets from liberals who usually tweeted criticisms of Abe from morning till night. It was more natural to assume they were engrossed in the charts, trading furiously.

**Example 2: Earthquakes**

As mentioned, the yen appreciated significantly during the Great East Japan Earthquake, despite it being a massive disaster requiring the highest insurance payouts in history. The yen also appreciated during other significant earthquakes, such as the Kumamoto Earthquake. Normally, the market would react after the damage reports, but some people were shorting the dollar-yen as soon as the earthquake occurred, without knowing the extent of the damage. This reaction, along with the capital strength to move the market significantly, suggests foreign traders.

**Example 3: The Current Ukraine Conflict**

My hypothesis is that there is a group that induces yen appreciation to economically attack Japan while profiting from foreign exchange transactions. This hypothesis explains the current yen depreciation during the Ukraine conflict. The group that had been inducing yen appreciation may no longer be able to do so and might have to sell their yen holdings, exchanging them for other currencies (probably dollars). The yen's sharp decline began in early March, around the time an unprecedented economic crisis hit a country facing economic sanctions. This crisis also affected countries trading primarily in resources with the sanctioned country and those leading campaigns against Japan's economy, such as the EV industry. These countries likely released their yen holdings to obtain physical assets.

**Example 4: Dutch Disease**

I mentioned that yen appreciation is an economic attack, and this can be explained by "Dutch Disease." Coined by The Economist magazine, Dutch Disease refers to the economic missteps resource-exporting countries fall into. These countries earn significant trade surpluses but face domestic currency appreciation, leading to the decline of manufacturing industries due to price competition failures. Japan, without major resource exports affecting its trade balance, still experienced yen appreciation, causing the decline of manufacturing industries and hollowing out the domestic market. Unlike the Netherlands, which used gas export profits for domestic measures, Japan lacks significant resource profits to counteract yen appreciation. Since Japan's primary industry is manufacturing, yen appreciation targeting this sector makes sense as an economic attack.

**What Should We Do?**

The current situation, where the yen depreciates amid a global crisis, suggests that the group attacking Japan economically must sell their yen holdings, indicating their own economic difficulties. Ideally, they should collapse under their own weight. The ongoing Ukraine conflict sees Ukraine pushing back against Russia, reminiscent of the Soviet failure in Afghanistan and its subsequent collapse two years later. Continuing to support Ukraine should suffice. Domestic anti-government forces, losing influence, will also disappear if countered persistently. This is a period of reduced attacks on Japan, a time to promote "domestic re-industrialization" even more vigorously.