The U.S. mis-calculation on its deterrence strategy

After watching Ambassador Emmanuel's interview, it seems U.S. political elites believe that deterrence is possible by letting P.R.C. think "the losses outweigh the gains when you invade Taiwan." However, this is a fundamental and serious strategic mis-calculation.

Taiwan is the core interest for China. The national re-unification has been the state's objective since its founding. Solving the Taiwan issue is an inevitable demand of this era and it is a historical mission that must be accomplished no matter whom the supreme leader is. To achieve this, China is willing to pay any price.

The United States should not underestimate China's determination. They should also pay attention to the warning signals China is sending. If they continue to take the wrong strategy path with baseless optimism, they will make the same mistake just like Truman and MacArthur did 73 years ago on the Korean Peninsula. They should carefully analyze the meaning of the balloon having flied over strategic nuclear forces on US mainland.

On the other hand, we know that the United States is carefully calculating the gains and losses of engagement in Taiwan issue. Before the wise and calculative Americans, there are two choices:

1. Continue pursuing the course of conflict. As consequence, lose all of the main force of 7th Fleet including the aircraft carriers and all of the major bases in the Western Pacific. Completely lose the position of global hegemonic power like ancient Sparta.

2. Like the United Kingdom, who signed the Atlantic Charter, withdraw from Taiwan, and sign a treaty defining the new era of US-China relationship, and enjoy peace in the Western Hemisphere for the next 100 years as the hegemon.

Any rational American elite should be able to make the right decision about which choice is wiser. Unlike the cramped Aegean Sea, which did not allowed coexistence of Athens and Sparta, the Pacific has enough space to contain the two great powers of the United States and China.