How to invest ⑧国際収支に関する余談

国際収支にからめて円安円高の動きについて説明をしてきました。ついでに国際収支がらみで、日本がまだ若かりし頃の話をします。私は1952年生まれです。1952年という年は日本が合衆国の占領を脱し独立した年です。1950年代、1960年代通じて日本が悩まされてきた問題に”国際収支の天井”という問題があります。では国際収支の天井とは何かについて話します。

ガラスの天井という言葉がありますね。女の人が会社の中で、あるいは官僚機構の中で昇進していく場合、何か見えない天井があってそこにぶつかってそれ以上上に昇進できないということを表した表現です。それと似たところがあります。日本が経済成長をしていく過程で次のようなことが起こります。景気のいい状態が続けば、日本経済は大きくなります。これが経済成長です。その当時の日本では景気拡大は長続きしません。なぜか？景気がいいときは輸出に比べて輸入が大きくなります。貿易赤字が大きくなるのです。人々は奢侈品を多く買うようになりますし、設備投資も活発になり、これも原材料の輸入などにより、やはり貿易赤字を膨らませます。これは手持ちの外貨の流出になります。外貨の不足は加工貿易立国の日本には致命的です。加工すべき原材料の輸入ができなくなります。外国からの新技術の導入もできなくなります。経済成長どころか日本は縮小せざるおえなくなります。それ故、日本政府あるいは日銀は景気引き締め策をとらざおえなくなる訳です。あたかも国際収支という天井にぶつかって景”国際収支の天井”といいます。外貨、ドル準備というのは新興国のみならずあらゆる国にとって非常に重要です。ドルが国際通貨ですから対外貿易に必須なのです。日本で対外貿易がストップしたらどうなるかを想像してみてください。かなりの日本人が餓死します。家畜の飼料はほとんど輸入です。野菜、米の肥料すら化学原料を輸入しなければ生産できません。日本の食糧自給率がカロリーベースで38％であることは知っていますか？カナダ266％、オーストラリア200％と比べると対照的です。フランス125％、ドイツですら86％です。

。In the context of Japan's international balance of payments and the challenges it faced in the 1950s and 1960s, there was a phenomenon known as the "ceiling of international balance." To explain this concept, let's draw an analogy to the metaphorical "glass ceiling" often used in the context of women's advancement in the workplace. Just as women may encounter an invisible barrier preventing further promotion within a company or bureaucratic organization, Japan faced a similar obstacle during its economic growth.
As Japan experienced economic expansion, a situation arose where sustained economic prosperity led to an increase in imports compared to exports. During good economic times, consumer spending on luxury goods and increased capital investment, including the import of raw materials, contributed to a significant trade deficit. This resulted in the outflow of foreign currency, which was detrimental to Japan, heavily reliant on processing trade.
The deficit in foreign currency had severe consequences for Japan, as it hindered the ability to import necessary raw materials for processing and prevented the introduction of new technologies from abroad. In essence, Japan found itself compelled to adopt contractionary economic policies to address the widening trade deficit, as if hitting a metaphorical "ceiling of international balance."
Foreign currency, especially in the form of U.S. dollars, held crucial importance not only for emerging nations but for countries worldwide. Given the international status of the U.S. dollar, it was essential for foreign trade. Imagining a scenario where Japan's foreign trade came to a halt underscores the gravity of the situation, with a significant portion of the population facing the risk of starvation. This is particularly true for Japan, where livestock feed, as well as fertilizers for vegetables and rice, heavily relied on imports.
Did you know that Japan's food self-sufficiency rate, measured in terms of calories, is only 38%? This is in stark contrast to Canada at 266%, Australia at 200%, France at 125%, and even Germany at 86%. This emphasizes the vulnerability of Japan's food supply and the critical importance of maintaining a positive international balance to sustain economic growth and ensure the well-being of its population.
Translation in English:
You were born in 1952, the year when Japan gained independence from the United States' occupation. During the 1950s and 1960s, Japan faced a significant economic challenge known as the "ceiling of international balance." This term can be compared to the metaphorical "glass ceiling" experienced by women in the workplace, signifying an invisible barrier preventing further advancement.
As Japan pursued economic growth, a pattern emerged where periods of economic prosperity led to increased imports compared to exports. The resulting trade deficit, caused by heightened consumer spending on luxury goods and increased capital investment, created an outflow of foreign currency. For Japan, heavily reliant on processing trade, this deficit became a critical issue.
The shortage of foreign currency had severe consequences, hindering Japan's ability to import necessary raw materials for processing and limiting the adoption of new technologies. To address the widening trade deficit, Japan was compelled to implement contractionary economic policies, akin to hitting a metaphorical "ceiling of international balance."
Foreign currency, especially in U.S. dollars, played a crucial role not only for emerging nations but for countries globally due to the dollar's international status. Imagining a scenario where Japan's foreign trade came to a halt underscores the gravity of the situation, with a significant portion of the population facing the risk of starvation. This vulnerability is heightened by Japan's heavy reliance on imported livestock feed, fertilizers for vegetables and rice, and the inability to achieve food self-sufficiency.
Did you know that Japan's food self-sufficiency rate, measured in terms of calories, is only 38%? This contrasts sharply with Canada at 266%, Australia at 200%, France at 125%, and even Germany at 86%. This highlights the importance of maintaining a positive international balance for Japan's economic growth and the well-being of its population.