第657回：それでも断言しよう、単独為替介入は、焼け石に水にすぎないのだと

2024年5月4日 17:06

為替市場が、阿鼻叫喚、という感じでしょうか。実質、ゴールデンウィークに突入して間もなく、ドル円が160円をつけた直後に157円、155円と値段を下げ、最終的には、昨日時点で、151円台にまで突入。夜間取引引け後に152.80近辺まで戻してきているものの、急激なアンワインド（巻き戻し）により、ドル円ロング勢が焼き尽くされたかのような報道が目につきます。

前回のコラムまでで、『152円から160円まで無限ロング楽勝』宣言を堅持しておりましたが、介入が来るまでは、普通に『160円抜けたら170円から180円早いだろうな～』と思っておりました。『仮に介入が来たとしても、どうせ155円までせき止めて、でもまた上げられるから、そんな無意味なことするわけないよな阿呆が』、とも思っていました。

蓋を開けてみると、実際、介入があり、現時点で確認した範囲によると、約9兆円程度の投下を行い、約8円弱ほど下げた効果が、世間にはもてはやされているようです。馬鹿だねえ本当。

個人的な話をすると、断続的に、異常にしつこい今回の介入は、“少し驚きました”。正直やるわけ無いと思っていましたし、やったところで、本質的に何の意味もない、と確信していましたから（今も）。それが、何の大儀なのか、急遽、3営業日（？）程度にわけて、断続的に、且つしつこく、執拗に円を買い続ける介入をみて、本音ベースで、少し驚きました。『やるきMAXやん』と。

“真面目に分析してハードファクトに基づきはっきり未来を書く”、をモットーにしている本稿は、残念ながら週に一度の配信でありますので、強烈な値動きまではコラムでは補足しきれないところがあります。155円で反発した時点では、『馬鹿だなあ』と思ってポジションを維持し、翌日、執拗に介入され時間外レートで153円つける途中で短期ポジションを整理し（中長期は一ミリも変えず不動）、先物ロングだけ残して短期ドル円の入る箇所を模索している、みたいな細部の躍動感を、本稿ではお伝えしきれないのが歯がゆいところですが、取り敢えず現状のポジションスタンスは、上記のところです。

『マジかよ日本円紙くず化計画始動したんじゃないのか（涙）』、とお悩み、お困りの読者様。安心してください。全く、大勢に変化はありません。むしろ、今回の介入が、近い将来、必ず弊害となる事態が発生し、遅かれ早かれ、日本円は170円、180円、200円、360円と、歩を刻んで参ります（理由は後述）。そもそも、為替市場で、ソブリン通貨が、一日で3円も5円も、ましてや恣意的な介入を理由に動かされるほうがおかしい。そんなもん近代国家でもなんでもない、田舎の蛮族が生息するアマゾン地帯の社会主義国家でも視認出来ませんよ。ガチで、田舎モンの発想です。

詳細は後ほど書きますが、今回の介入で特をしたのは誰か、といえば、短期投機勢ですよ、ドルショートして、利益取ろうとした。でも、そういう人々って、懲りずにロングしないで、ドルショートして焼かれる人々なので、彼らの泡銭を作ったところで、言葉通り水泡に帰すだけですよ。無意味、無駄、ここに極まりですよ。

『某神田さん神だｗｗｗ』、『某神田さんハイスペ天才過ぎる』、『某神田さん国士』、みたいな、某神田さんを神格化するムーブがネットで目につきますが、お前ら絶対ドルショート勢だろｗｗｗ何が国士だよ馬鹿かてめえらは。

まず、誤解のないように前提条件から書きます。小職はめちゃくちゃに叩かれる（がちな）財務省の方とは10年ほど前から親密な交流があり、かなり深い方（謎）とも面識があります。彼らの国士さはそれなりに体感・感服していますし、その中でも財務官にのしあがった某神田さんは、相当優秀であることは間違いありません。従って、今回の介入は結果的にクソでゴミクズ以下の田舎モン竹槍戦法であると断言しますが、それは決して、某神田さん個人を攻めたり財務省を攻める意図があるわけではありません。結果的に発生した“クソ事象”について、財務省や日銀の方々のなかでも、間違いなく意見が割れたであろう本件（普通ならここで介入なんざする必要は一ミクロンもない）に対して、腹に据えかねる“本当の国士”が省の中にいるはずで、その人に対するエールも込めて、皮肉たっぷりに『何故介入は効果が皆無なのか』を、今日は詳述したいと思います。某神田さんも国士なんでしょうが、そもそも『物価高が国民に影響しているか不明瞭』とする日銀と、『物価高は円安の影響が大きいから看過できない』とする某神田さんの意見が矛盾している時点で、『そんなもん近代国家の財務戦略としてあり得るわけがないくらいボケた白痴話にすぎない』わけで、ましてやそれを戦略的にやっているとしたら、それこそ『俺達は国民を馬鹿にしながら舐め腐った陰気臭い村社会に生息する縄文人です』と国際通貨市場に高々と宣言しているのと同義であり、マジで馬鹿で救いようがない話になります。繰り返しになりますが、救いようがない話なのは個人とか組織、に対して意見しているわけではなく、『うわー某神田さんヒーローｗｗｗｗ』みたいに盲目の羊たちが騒いでいるこの風潮や世論に対して、意見しています。レクター博士に食われろお前らはマジで。馬鹿なんだから。

ということで、奇妙奇天烈な介入劇場、これからも介入は続くのか、円高になるのか、日本株への影響、結局最後に勝つのはビットコイン（しつこい）、の視点から、多角的に解説していきたいと思います。それでは参りましょう。

１．まず、介入の実態を把握しよう

調べてみるとあまり具体的な金額が書かれた記事はなかったので、こちらの記事を拝借していきます。

参考１）再び円買い介入観測、2日早朝に推計3兆円超　今週計9兆円規模か

日銀の発表する当座預金の不足額から推定して、大体、９兆円程度の介入（円買い・ドル売り）があったことが確認できます。もちろんあくまで予想でしかありませんが、民間予想とこれだけ乖離してるわけですし、某神田さんも介入の問い合わせに対し、『コメントしない、今作業中』と答えいっちゃってるｗ問答もあったことから、介入があったのは間違いありません。

さて、為替介入、というのは、言葉的にもなんだか悪い事してそうな響きもあって、市場原理主義者から疎まれそうな行動に見えますが、実際にそうで、為替介入というのはよほどのことがない限り認められておりません。ちなみに、国際通貨市場の番人である国際通貨基金（IMF）には、為替介入する際の適用レートとしてフローティングレート（市場変動レート）が使えるのか、とか、為替介入をする時の申し立ての基準、とかが、かなり細かく規定されています。参考までに、IMFの規定集を一部掲示いたします。

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/wp09211.pdf

規定そのものが改定されている可能性もありますが、ひとまず最初の参考資料の14ページ目、Free floatingの箇所のこちらを、目をかっぽじってご覧ください。

intervention has been limited to at most three instances in the previous six
months, each lasting no more than three business days.

要するに、為替介入は原則として３営業日以内に終わらせるものとし、過去６ヶ月以内には行ってはならない、と明記されています。すなわち、為替介入が来る時期的制約としては、4月30日、5月1日、5月2日、の3営業日で、一旦打ち止めとなり、あとは半年後、10月31日以降の介入となる、と理解するのが自然です。だからといって、『円安確定だー10月30日までフルロングだｗｗｗ！！！』となるのはちょっと性急なので、もう少し補強して情報整理をしていきましょう。

次に、財務省の発表している過去の為替介入データを見てみましょう。

参考２）外国為替平衡操作の実施状況(令和4年7月～令和4年9月)

参考３）外国為替平衡操作の実施状況(令和4年10月～令和4年12月)

この過去のデータによると、露骨に、9月22日、10月21日、10月24日と、３営業日以内ではないので、前述した3営業日というのが形骸化したルールなのか、当座預金の単なる振り替え（証券の売り等ではない）はカウントされないのか、あるいは基準として3営業日とあるので、飛び石でも半年以上空けていれば3営業日以内とカウントされるのか、はわからない（詳しい方教えてｗ）。ただ、介入金額が同じく9兆円程度なので、今回の介入も同額である、且つ、3営業日並んで実施・執行されていて、ようやくドル円が反発したように見える、ということを鑑みると、明らかにこの“9兆円介入”・“3営業日”というのは意識している、と感じる。

それで、問題は、あと何発介入が撃てるか、ということになる。いわゆる弾数の確認。そもそも、こんな介入の余地をメディアとかに推察されている時点で大分痛いわけだけれど、取り敢えず参考記事を貼り付けます。

参考４）為替介入、攻防第2幕　「残弾は8発」政府の懐探る市場

それなりに情報力があって賢い記者が書いているんだから、そうずれてはいないだろうな、と思いつつも、一応正確な金額を頭に入れておこう。1日時点で判明している介入額が約5兆円程度で、この時点で8発、と書いているということは、おそらく予算が40兆円くらいということになる。2日にも3兆円強介入しているので、残数が37兆円、という計算になるのだろうか、この記者の頭の中で。この根拠を知りたいなと思って自分なりに日銀の当座預金を調べてみる。

すると、大体1.29兆ドル程度の外貨準備高があり、そのうち77％が証券等とされている（米債とは書いていないが間違いなく米債ｗ）から、23％が当座預金に眠る現金、だと考えられる。約200兆円程度の外貨準備高に対して23％だと約46兆円、となるから、確かに残数、大体8発、という記者の考え方は、あっている。

以下に整理しよう。

・為替介入をする際は、原則として6ヶ月以内、3営業日連続して行うことが望ましく、それ以上期間を伸ばす場合は別途IMFに申し立てをしなければならない
・ただし、2022年9月と10月の介入時には、介入実績3営業日ではあるものの、飛び石で介入しているため、必ずしもIMFのルールが厳正かどうかは現時点では不明
・一方、介入金額は、露骨且つ馬鹿律儀に9兆円前後、となっているため、感覚として9兆円程度の介入で5円～9円が動くと考えておくと良い
・日銀の当座預金・外貨準備高によれば、残数を仮に35～40兆円と置くと、同規模の介入が想定されるのは、あと4回、ということになり、半年後に来るのか、IMFルールを破るあるいは適用されない方法で介入が来るのかは不明
・注意事項として、日米協調介入が展開されると、眠っている77％の外債証券も売られて円買いが来ることになる。160兆円規模の買いに売り向かう馬鹿はいないため、万が一、日米合意で米債売り許可からの為替介入が来る場合、ヘッジファンドは焼き尽くされることになる（が、このシナリオは米国が米ドルの信用を自ら遺棄することと同義になるため確率は1％以下）

ちょっと真面目で堅苦しい書きぶりが続きましたが、ここは、介入実態を知るうえで、非常～に重要なので、“ドル円ロングで読者全員ビリオネア”を目指すためにも、ここまでは念の為、頭に入れておきましょう。

２．異常にしつこかった介入の正体

前節ではデータ・ハードファクトに基づく推定を整理しましたが、ここでは実際に相場を張りながら感じた異常なしつこさについても触れておきます。結局、介入は無駄・無意味である、という論理は次から展開するということで、介入手法が狡猾になっていく可能性がある、ということを示唆しておきたいと思います。

というのも、今回の介入は、恐らく後日、日銀が為替平衡操作の発表をして額や時期が明らかになると思われるものの、この発表以外にも、『“ステルス介入”もセットでしているんじゃないの？』と思われるフローが散見されたので、備忘録も兼ねて読者の皆様に注意喚起しておきます。

ステルス介入とは、覆面介入、とも言われる介入手法であり、要するに正規の介入ではないけど実質的な介入を、政府傘下のファンド等で行う手法です。例えばGPIFとか年金が、ETFを買う、みたいなね。日銀は買ってないけど、年金買ってました、でも公表義務ありません、みたいな、こういうのを、ステルス（覆面）介入というわけです。

で、何でこんなことを書くか、というと、これは後述する、“田舎モンの介入効果無意味でゼロ”のところでも触れるのですが、日本株が異常に重かったんですよ円高のｗｗｗで、なんとなく、直感的に、『これ、ステルス介入で日本株もセットで売ってね？』と思ったんですよ。いや、根拠はないですよ。全く。良くわからないけど、そう感じた。確かに、円高で、上値が重いのは分かりますよ。だけど、米株があんなに上げて、アップルが15兆円も自社株買いして、これだけの材料が出て、こんなに重くなるか？ｗって、思ったんですよ。そもそも、日経とダウが急落したきっかけは、米債利回り問題だったわけでしょ。それが解消されたわけでしょ。だからダウが上がってるわけでしょ。なのに何でこんな日経弱いのｗｗｗって思ったんです。直感的に、『クジラ（GPIFや共済等）が、ETF空売りしてね？』とちょっと思ったんです。で、それはやろうと思えば出来るから、『円高介入するために、日本株を売ったほうがはええやな』、と財務省の頭のいい人たちが気づいていたとすれば、これは、やろうと思えば出来るステルス介入の手段、ということで、日本株の売りも来るかもしれないと、脳髄に叩き込んでおいたほうが良い。なりふり構わず来る時は、何でもやってくる、っていうのが、今回の介入強行でよーく分かったからね。

３．結局、介入で得をしたのは誰なのか

さて、ぼちぼち本題に入りましょうかね。今回の介入で、得をしたのは誰なのか？問題です。ドルショートしてる馬鹿野郎たち（投機・短期投資家勢）はもとより、まず日銀の当座預金に、円天、じゃなかった、円転された分は、含み益としてカウントされるよね。報道によると、ドルを買った時期が80円前後だったから、約2倍の水準で、9兆円を利確しているわけだから、前回の介入と合わせて、国庫歳入に、18兆円近く入ったことになるね。一見すると、これは良いことに見えるでしょう。

『でも、その18兆円って、どこに行くんだ？』って気になるでしょ？本稿読者の皆様は聡明ですからね。教えてしんぜよう、ドルになりますｗｗｗ　そう、ドルになるんだよ、そのうちｗｗｗ　だから、今回の介入は、無意味of無意味、ザッツ、無駄、King of MUDAです、ゴミofカスの判断です。

『まず、日本政府が、この18兆円を有効活用しなさいよ』、と識者は言うでしょう・思うでしょう、でもね、そんなこと出来るわけないんだよ、日本政府は。国民に対して卑下するより、米国に対してどう牽制するか（あるいはおもねるか）、を最優先で考える国家ですから。なんてったって、敗戦国だからね。

為替介入の不意打ち、奇襲作戦成功しました。前回分とあわせて、18兆円利益出ました。日銀の当座預金が増えました。はい、シャンシャン、おめでとうございます。となるわけがないよね。『18兆円増えたんだろ？良かったなおい、じゃあまた米国債買っとけよ、宜しく』、とジャイアンに言われて、カツアゲされるだけです。だから、無意味なんですよ、18兆円の、名目上の含み益なんぞ、出たところで。こんなもん、局地戦なんだ。大局観からすると、何の意味もない利益なんだよ。本当、こういう介入のやり取りを見て、『神田さん国士無双！！！！』とか言ってるやつ、雀鬼で頭狂ってんじゃないかなって思うよね。その昔、第二次世界大戦の時にさ、撃墜王と言われた岩本徹三さんて人がいたわけだ。そりゃめっぽう強くて、一説には202機叩き落とした凄腕のパイロットだったらしいんだけど、結局、この岩本さんが、敵（米軍）すら認める素晴らしい人材であったとしても、第二次世界大戦では、原爆2つ落とされてボロボロになったんだよ日本は。きっと当時、戦中に、『撃墜王！！！！！大日本帝国！！！！！第二次世界大戦、大勝利確定！！！！』とか吠えてる馬鹿が無限にいたんだろうなって、今回の神田惨事、じゃなかった、神田賛辞を見ていて、つとに思う。

いや、某神田さんはそりゃ優秀でしょどう見ても。だけど、結果的にこの判断を、世論なのか政権なのかの圧力でやらされている事象そのものを見れば、こんな私的介入・無意味介入は、ウンコ以外のなにものでもないですよ。冷静にその事実を見ていればまだしも、『神田さんが！！！！無敵だから！！！！円ロング！！！！しかない！！！！』とか吠えてる馬鹿、マジで多いからね。大体そういうやつに限って、すぐドルロングにドテンして、結局、金を擦るんだからもうお前相場やめろマジでｗセンスないから。

ていうくらい、『誰も得したやつがいねえよな介入』と思うしかないのですが、唯一、得したっぽい人々・属性を一つだけあげるとすると、この人たちかな？

参考５）立民3補選勝利泉氏“解散・総選挙を”自民全敗“信頼回復を”

要するに、東京15区含めて自民党がボロカスに負けたから、世論の圧力もあって『なんとか円安対策してよー』みたいなプッシュが働いた可能性はあるよね。で、自民党の支持率が、某神田さんの実績で多少回復した、とかなら、あり得ると思う。つまり唯一の介入勝者は、自民党の人々、ということも、いえなくもない。そして、自民党の人々も中には賢い人もいるだろうから、『介入したって当座預金口座内の通貨建てが変わるだけだから米国も怒らないって。それよりも今は円安対策してる風味なのが大事なんだって、マジで頼むよ（涙）』、みたいなプッシュをかけた可能性はある。だって、日銀の当座預金が円転して、円建て純資産が増えたとして、それを財務省が国民のために使えるわけがないし（嫌味じゃないよ）、結局、米国の圧力もあって、『米国債またはCPあるいは準ずる証券』に投資するから、ドル買い円売りのフローがいつか走るだけじゃん。

『ということは、政権にも相談し、イエレンと事前に連携して許可をとった協調介入だったのでは？』と頭のいい本稿読者は思うかもしれない。確かに、あり得ない話ではない。だけれど、新NISAとかで日本から米株に大量の資金を供給している最中、“どう考えても日本株（米国）にマイナスな円高”をイエレンが許容するわけがない。もしかしたら、Fedの中の誰かと某神田さんがやり取りをしていた可能性はあるかもしれない。でもその程度。だから、今回の介入は、そのうち、米国から、『おい、なんか黄色い猿が勝手に介入して18兆円儲かったらしいからガジリに行こうぜ、逆らったらメディアで叩けよ』、みたいな圧力がかかり、結局、補助金なのか米国債なのかしらんけど、何かの形で召し上げられる。その際は、円売りドル買いのフローが走るから、せっかく18兆円利確したのにまた賭場リスクに資金をさらされることになる。以下、この繰り返し。だから、何度もいうけど、介入は無意味。ザッツ、無駄。

４．最重要な米国の方針

昨日の雇用統計で、ずいぶんと悪い数値が発表されて、市場は、利下げする舞台が揃ったかもしれないと、安堵したわけですよ。

参考６）4月の米雇用統計就業者は前月比増も市場予想大きく下回る

雇用統計も、もはやイベントドリブンのために用意されたネタでしかないんですが、それでも雇用統計が悪化して米株がアク抜けした事実は大きい。前回のコラムで話した通り、ブランド価値の話で、『景気がそもそも悪くなっている（インフレ不況）から、利下げしてもいいよね？利下げするだけの充分な理由が揃っているから、（ドルの）ブランド価値を下げることにならないよね？』というコンセンサスが、市場と生まれつつある。

日本株や米株が急落する要因となったのは、利回り上昇に伴う対処法のなさ、から来ていた。それが、雇用統計の数値が悪化し、『利上げなんて出来ないし、むしろ利下げして景気を多少過熱させるようにしてみたら』、みたいな雰囲気が出た。米株にとってはこれは僥倖で、アップルが鬼の自社株買い15兆円を発表したのも、躍動するに、非常にリズムが良い。つまり。あの時のような、『日本株を買えば馬鹿でも儲かる』モードが、再来する可能性が非常に高かった。この、高かった、というのがポイント。

『え、じゃあシナリオは変わったの？』と言われるかもしれないけれど、変わってはない。ただ、遅効性が生まれた。何故？円高のせいだよｗｗｗ介入のせいだよ。どう考えても、介入のせいで、日本株の復活に冷水をかけた。160円を高値として、5％下げたら152円。日本株、日経平均で見れば、38,000円の5％で約2,000円。単純に絶対値で比較出来るもんでもないけれど、日経平均2,000円下げるくらいのマイナス効果を、介入で、遠因としているのだよ。それを見て、『撃墜王！！！最高！！！』とか喜んでいるゴブリンみたいな国賊がいるんだよ。信じられますかこれ。現代の、近代国家の話ですよ。

話を戻すと、米国は苦労して利上げしたところに、SVBの破綻事件が起こって、『インフレが進むと銀行が潰れる』という事実に突きつけられた。当初は、『日本だけ量的緩和してるから、ドルは利上げして、先に逃げて、このままドル円キャリーでドルを支えさせよう』と思っていた矢先の話だったので、米国も面食らったはず。その後、景気の指数は良いのに、インフレにしすぎると銀行が潰れ金融ショックが起こるから、なんとかごまかして利下げを試みてきたけど、なかなかうまくいかなかった。ここに来て、雇用統計の悪化や、利回りの影響も落ち着きつつあり、ようやく心機一転、米国の利上げリスクはなくなり、利下げも無理ないスピードで進められる最中、日本だけが利回り上げて物価抑制を成功させた、なんて、許されると思ってますか？許されませんよそんなもんｗ

アメリカからすれば子会社の猿がドルを買い続ければ良いわけだから、ガンガン利上げして日米金利差がなくなるようなことをされたら困るわけです。猿がドルを買う理由がなくなるからね。ということは、日米の金融政策はドル買いしかありえず、なので結局、日本の当座預金口座の純資産も米国債になるだけで、つまり介入なんてしても無意味で、結局のところ米国の意向に沿うだけだ、という話になる。そもそも152.8円で、介入しても5％しか動かないし、そもそもいつ介入されるかわからない通貨なんてソブリンに信用されるわけがない、し、そんな田舎の社会主義国の通貨に人気が出ようはずがない。

５．どうせ介入するなら

ということで、結局、日銀の当座預金口座が介入で増えたとて、どうせ最後は米国に召し上げられるなら、『ビットコインのETFに金突っ込みまくろうぜ』、という提案をしてくれる人こそ本当の国士ですよ。１兆円あったら何枚買えるんだ？10万枚買えるのか、最高ｗ9兆円とか、18兆円あったら、90万枚～180万枚買えるじゃねえかビットコインがｗ。てか、それはもはや、ビットコイン全体の5～10％じゃねえか。ということで、ビットコインを買いましょう日銀・財務局の皆様。為替差益が出たらビットコインを買う。米国に詰められたら？言い訳はシンプル。『もっとこれからも米国債買いたいので、運用してきますね♪』これでOKです。イエレンOK。あ、イエレンビットコイン嫌いだから、トランプさんが大統領になったあと、麻生さんから直接伝えてもらい、OKをもらおう。

ビットコインが1億円、10億円になったら、180万枚とかもってたら天文学的な数値になるよね。180兆円とか、1,800兆円とかか？強いものいじめ（嫉妬社会）して足引っ張りまくる暇があるならこれをやって一撃180兆円でいいじゃないかｗ。これ決定したら、縄文人が支配する蛮族国家から、スイスを超える最先端の近代国家に、一気に変貌しますよ。だってみんな、世界は、そもそも、インフレに悩んでるんでしょ？インフレの要因は、中央銀行が大量に紙幣を発行したからでしょ？その真反対にある通貨はビットコインしかないよね？だから、円が先に死亡して、ドルが死亡することになっても、ビットコインはそこに立っているよね。ということで、本稿読者の皆様も、ドル円ロング、日経平均愛国ロング、ビットコインを半永久ロングで、これからも頑張ってまいりましょう。コツコツ積み立てるのがポイントですよ。ドル円360円、日経平均10万円、ビットコイン4億円を夢見て。ていうか、夢でもなんでもなくて、単なる通過点だけど。

【ご案内】
「革命家」松田元が、今だからこそ話せる真実を全て語ります。

■こんな方におすすめのメンバーシップ（サークル）です
・WWBの創世記と真相、現状と未来の可能性にご興味のある方
・WWXが誕生した背景と真実、これからの見通しに興味のある方
・なぜ、c0banをホワイトリストに乗せたのか知りたい方
・暗号通貨の相場見通しに興味がある方（BTC、ETH、他）
・なぜ、不可能と言われていた仮想通貨交換業の登録が出来たのか知りたい方
・上場企業経営を通して積んだ経験について意見、見解を聞きたい方
・メンバー間でジョイントベンチャーを希望される方
・暗号通貨マイニングの設置・運営について興味のある方
・コミュニティで新規発行されるデジタルクーポンの無料ドロップを求める方
・資金調達（上場・非上場）、広報・IR（上場）に関する助言を求める方
・企業価値（株価）を実態とともに適切に市場へ伝えるコツを知りたい方
・企業経営全般に関するサポートを求める方
・これから眼前にする冥府魔道において、生き方に悩みを抱える方

【 2018年8月23日発売！ブロックチェーン、仮想通貨をテーマにした松田元新著がKKロングセラーさんから出版されました】
「価値観」「生き方」までも塗り替える、「新・資本主義」の幕開け。
善人が勝つための新しい経済のしくみはこうして生まれる。
ブロックチェーンの普及で見直される「共感」「感動」「慈悲」「赦し」「リスペクト」。
ブロックチェーンの普及によって、仕事をしなくても「善人ならばお金が入ってくる世の中」になる!?
現在、ビットコインなどの仮想通貨は、主には投機商品としか扱われていませんが、これからは、本来の通貨としての役割を果たすようになります。仮想通貨の正体は勝手な書き換えができないデジタルデータ「ブロックチェーン」です。
今まで、インターネットが、人々の暮らしを大きく変えてきましたが、ブロックチェーンも近い将来、AIなどの新技術とともに、人々の暮らしを新たな形へ変えていくことになります。仮想通貨業界に参入した新進気鋭の起業家が、仮想通貨の未来を予測する!
▼書籍購入はこちらから▼
「いい人がお金に困らない仮想通貨新時代のルール」

【2018年1月6日発売！松田元共著のICOをテーマにした日本初の書籍を出版しました】
仮想通貨サービス・ICOの本質とそれぞれの企業の戦略が見える！
ビットコインの神（ビットコインジーザス）と呼ばれるbitcoin.com・CEOのロジャー・バー氏と、兼元謙任氏、そして松田元のトリプルコラボによる１冊です。
仮想通貨がもたらす未来をあなたはまだ理解していない……未来は確実に近づいています！
・なぜ仮想通貨で世界は変わるのか？
・どのようにWowooは、世界を変えていこうとしているのか？
・国はどうなっていくのか？
・貨幣はどうなっていくのか？
・私たちの生活はどうなっていくのか？
二十世紀に、パソコンやインターネットが世の中に出回り始めた時点で、「これらが人類の生活を根底から変える」と気づくことができた人は、ごく少数のはずです。
現時点でのブロックチェーンも、そのような「あまりにも画期的すぎて、凄さが理解されづらい」立場にあると考えています。
まずは、ブロックチェーンの具体的な使いみちについて知っていただきたいのです。
ビットコインにもブロックチェーン技術が使われています。よって、誰から誰の口座へ、いくら渡ったのかが、二〇〇九年から全て記録されています。
しかも、その取引記録を後で変えることはできないため、仮想通貨を盗んだり横領したりすることもできません。
仮想通貨は目に見えないので、うさんくさく感じられる方も多いでしょう。
しかし、ブロックチェーンで裏づけられている以上、むしろ現金よりも遥かに不正行為が難しいお金なのです。
さらに言えば、仮想通貨は、銀行や証券会社など、従来型の金融機関の役割を大きく揺るがしかねないほどの破壊的なイノベーションです。
そして今、ＩＣＯ（Initial Coin Offering：イニシャル・コイン・オファリング／新規仮想通貨公開）という仕組みが稼働を始め、ビジネスの世界も大きな変革が始まっています。
▼書籍購入はこちらから▼
「世界は逆転する！仮想通貨サービス・ICOで世界を変える」

Episode 657：Nevertheless, let me assert this: unilateral currency intervention is nothing more than a drop in the bucket

The foreign exchange market seems to be in turmoil. Shortly after entering Golden Week, the USD/JPY pair dropped from around 160 yen to 157 yen, then 155 yen, and eventually plunged into the 151-yen range as of yesterday. Although it rebounded to around 152.80 yen in after-hours trading, reports suggest that rapid unwinding has left USD/JPY long positions burnt out.

In the previous column, I steadfastly maintained the declaration of an "infinite long, easy win from 152 yen to 160 yen." I had been thinking that until intervention came, it would be like, "If it breaks 160 yen, it'll probably shoot up to 170 yen or 180 yen quickly." I also thought, "Even if intervention occurs, they'll probably hold it back to around 155 yen, but then it'll go back up again. So, there's no point in doing something so meaningless, right?"

As it turns out, there was indeed intervention, and based on the information confirmed at this point, it seems that about 9 trillion yen was injected, resulting in a drop of about 8 yen or so, which is being hailed by the public. How foolish, really.

On a personal note, I must say I was "a bit surprised" by this intermittent and unusually persistent intervention. Frankly, I never thought they would do it, and even if they did, I was convinced it would be essentially meaningless (and I still am). However, seeing the intervention persistently and stubbornly buying yen intermittently over the course of about three trading days (?) really surprised me, from a genuine standpoint. It's like, "They're really going all out, huh?"

Regrettably, this column, which adheres to the motto of "writing the future clearly based on serious analysis and hard facts," is only distributed once a week, so it may not fully cover intense market movements. At the point of the rebound at 155 yen, I held my position, thinking, "How foolish," and the next day, amid persistent intervention, I adjusted my short-term position during the rise to 153 yen in after-hours trading (while leaving the medium to long-term positions unchanged), and I am currently exploring opportunities to enter short-term dollar-yen positions, but unfortunately, these nuanced dynamics cannot be fully conveyed in this column, which is frustrating. However, for now, the current position stance is as stated above.

To readers who may be worried or troubled, thinking, "Seriously, has Japan initiated the plan to turn the yen into worthless paper (tears)," please rest assured. There is absolutely no significant change. On the contrary, this intervention is likely to lead to adverse consequences in the near future, and sooner or later, the yen will march on to 170 yen, 180 yen, 200 yen, 360 yen, and beyond (reasons will be discussed later). After all, in the foreign exchange market, it is absurd for a sovereign currency to move by 3 yen or 5 yen in a single day, let alone due to arbitrary interventions. Such behavior is not seen even in modern states, let alone in socialist states inhabited by rural barbarians in the Amazon rainforest. It's truly a mindset characteristic of rural folk.

I'll write the details later, but if you ask who benefited from this intervention, it's the short-term speculators, those who shorted the dollar and tried to take profits. However, these are the same people who, without learning their lesson, continue to short instead of going long, and end up getting burned. So, even if we made some quick cash off these folks, it all just evaporates into thin air, literally. It's pointless, futile, the epitome of it.

You see moves on the net like, 'That certain Mr. Kanda is a god lol', 'That certain Mr. Kanda is too high-spec genius lol', 'That certain Mr. Kanda is a national scholar', but you guys are definitely the dollar shorters lol. What's with the national scholar? Are you guys idiots?

First, let me start with the premise to avoid any misunderstandings. I have had a close relationship with some folks from the Ministry of Finance (who tend to be heavily criticized) for about ten years now, and I also have some acquaintance with someone who is quite influential among them (a mystery). I genuinely respect their expertise and status to some extent, and among them, Mr. Kanda, who has risen to become a finance official, is undoubtedly highly capable. Therefore, I assert that this intervention was ultimately a crappy and garbage-tier tactic, akin to a bunch of rural folks with bamboo spears, but this is by no means an attack on Mr. Kanda personally or on the Ministry of Finance. In light of the "crappy event" that occurred as a result, there must have been diverging opinions within the Ministry and the Bank of Japan regarding this matter (normally, there wouldn't be even a micron of necessity for intervention). There should be individuals within the Ministry who are truly frustrated by this situation and who may have opposed the intervention, and with that in mind, I want to delve into why the intervention had zero effect today, with a bit of sarcasm thrown in. While Mr. Kanda may also be a national scholar, the fact that there is a contradiction between the Bank of Japan's view, which says "it's unclear if high prices are affecting the public," and Mr. Kanda's view, which states "high prices cannot be overlooked due to the impact of yen depreciation," renders it nothing more than a ludicrously idiotic tale that wouldn't even fly as a modern state's financial strategy. Furthermore, if it were done strategically, it would be equivalent to declaring to the international currency market, "We are Jomon people living in a gloomy, backward village, disrespecting the citizens," and it would be a truly stupid and irredeemable story. I want to clarify once again that this is not a criticism directed at individuals or organizations but rather at the trend and public opinion where blind sheep are making noise like "Wow, Mr. Kanda is a hero lol." Seriously, you guys need to get eaten by Dr. Lecter. You're idiots.

So, with that said, diving into the bizarre and tumultuous intervention theater, we'll explore whether interventions will continue, if the yen will strengthen, the impact on Japanese stocks, and ultimately, from the perspective of Bitcoin emerging as the victor (persistent), I'd like to provide a multifaceted explanation. Let's get started.

１．First, let's understand the reality of the intervention

Since I couldn't find articles with specific amounts upon searching, I'll borrow this article instead.

Reference 1) "Yen-buying intervention observed again, estimated to exceed 3 trillion yen in the early morning of the 2nd, expected to total 9 trillion yen this week"

Based on the shortfall in current account deposits announced by the Bank of Japan, it can be estimated that there was an intervention of roughly around 9 trillion yen (buying yen, selling dollars). Of course, this is just an estimate, but given the significant deviation from private forecasts and the fact that Mr. Kanda himself responded to inquiries about the intervention with, "No comment, currently working on it," there is no doubt that intervention occurred.

Now, the term "currency intervention" has a somewhat negative connotation and may seem like an action frowned upon by market fundamentalists. In reality, currency intervention is not typically acknowledged unless there are extraordinary circumstances. For reference, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which acts as a guardian of the international currency market, has detailed regulations regarding the conditions under which currency intervention can be carried out, including the use of floating rates (market fluctuation rates) as the applicable rate for intervention and criteria for submitting requests for intervention. For your reference, here are some excerpts from the IMF's regulations.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/wp09211.pdf

There is also the possibility that the regulations themselves have been revised, but for now, please take a close look at the section on "Free floating" on page 14 of the first reference document.

intervention has been limited to at most three instances in the previous six
months, each lasting no more than three business days.

In essence, foreign exchange interventions are generally expected to be completed within three business days and should not have been conducted within the past six months, as clearly stated. This means that in terms of timing constraints for foreign exchange interventions, the three business days of April 30, May 1, and May 2 should mark a temporary halt, with any further interventions postponed until after six months, starting from October 31. It's natural to understand it this way. However, it would be somewhat hasty to conclude, "It's confirmed that the yen will weaken - I'm going full long until October 30th!!!" Therefore, let's further reinforce and organize the information.

Next, let's take a look at the past foreign exchange intervention data released by the Ministry of Finance.

Reference 2） Implementation Status of Foreign Exchange Balance Operations (July 4th to September 4th of the 4th year of Reiwa)

Reference 3） Implementation Status of Foreign Exchange Balance Operations (October to December of the 4th year of Reiwa)

According to this past data, blatantly, on September 22nd, October 21st, and October 24th, which are not within three business days, so it's unclear whether the aforementioned three business days rule has become a formality, or if mere transfers of current account deposits (not involving securities sales, etc.) are not counted, or if there is a stipulation of three business days as a criterion, so even if there is a gap of more than half a year between interventions, they are counted as within three business days. However, since the intervention amount is also approximately 9 trillion yen, and the intervention this time was executed within three business days, and finally, the dollar-yen rebounded, it is clear that this "9 trillion yen intervention" and "three business days" are being consciously considered.

So, the question is, how many more interventions can be launched? In other words, it's about confirming the number of shots left. Frankly, the fact that such intervention possibilities are speculated in the media is already quite painful, but for now, I'll attach a reference article.

Reference 4） Forex Intervention, Second Act of Struggle: "Eight Shots Remaining," Market Probes Government's Pockets

Since it's being written by reasonably well-informed and intelligent reporters, it's unlikely to be too far off. Nevertheless, it's prudent to keep accurate figures in mind. As of the first day, the known intervention amount is around 5 trillion yen, and if they're mentioning "eight shots" at this point, the budget is probably around 40 trillion yen. Considering that they intervened with over 3 trillion yen on the second day, the remaining amount would be around 37 trillion yen according to this reporter's calculation. I'm curious about the basis for this, so I decided to look into the Bank of Japan's current account deposits.

It turns out that there's approximately 1.29 trillion dollars in foreign reserves, of which 77% is considered securities (definitely U.S. bonds, though it's not explicitly stated) and the remaining 23% is presumed to be cash held in current accounts. With a foreign reserve total of around 200 trillion yen, 23% equates to about 46 trillion yen. So, indeed, the reporter's estimate of roughly eight shots remaining seems to be accurate.

Let's summarize below.

・When conducting currency interventions, it is generally desirable to do so within six months and over three consecutive business days. If the intervention period exceeds this, a separate application must be made to the IMF.
・However, during the interventions in September and October 2022, while there was intervention activity over a period of three consecutive business days, it was done in a staggered manner. Therefore, it's currently unclear whether the IMF rules are strictly adhered to.
・On the other hand, the intervention amount is typically around 9 trillion yen, and it's worth considering that an intervention of around this scale can move the exchange rate by 5 to 9 yen.
・According to the Bank of Japan's current account deposits and foreign reserves, assuming a remaining balance of approximately 35 to 40 trillion yen, there may be an expectation of similar-sized interventions for about four more times. Whether these will occur in six months or through methods that may not adhere to IMF rules is uncertain.
・As a precaution, in the event of coordinated interventions between Japan and the United States, the 77% of dormant foreign bond securities could also be sold, leading to yen buying. Given that there are no fools willing to confront a 160 trillion yen buying force, if, hypothetically, a scenario unfolds where forex intervention follows permission for U.S. bond sales through Japan-U.S. agreement, hedge funds would be wiped out (though the likelihood of this scenario is less than 1%, as it would equate to the United States abandoning confidence in the dollar).

I've been a bit serious and formal in my writing, but here, understanding the nature of the intervention is extremely important. So, to aim for "every reader becoming a billionaire with USD/JPY longs," let's make sure to keep this in mind.

２．The True Nature of Persistent Interventions

In the previous section, we organized estimates based on data and hard facts, but here, I'll also touch upon the abnormal persistence felt while observing the market. Ultimately, while the logic that interventions are futile and meaningless will be further developed next, I'd like to suggest that the intervention methods may become more cunning.

This is because, although the intervention this time will probably be clarified later by the Bank of Japan's announcement of foreign exchange balance operations, there have been glimpses of flows that could be interpreted as "stealth interventions" beyond this announcement. Therefore, as a reminder and for the record, I'd like to alert readers to this possibility.

"Stealth intervention," also known as "masked intervention," is a method of intervention where substantial intervention is conducted not through formal means but through government-backed funds, among other channels. For example, when GPIF or pension funds buy ETFs. It's like saying, "The Bank of Japan didn't buy, but the pension fund did, and there's no obligation to disclose," this kind of action is referred to as "stealth" or "masked" intervention.

So, why am I writing about this? Well, I'll touch on this later when discussing the "Effectiveness of Rural Intervention," but Japanese stocks were unusually sluggish due to the yen's strength (lol), and somehow, intuitively, I thought, "Hey, maybe they're selling Japanese stocks along with stealth intervention?" I mean, there's no evidence. None at all. I don't really get it, but that's how I felt. Sure, I understand that the yen's strength weighs on the upside. But with the U.S. stocks surging like crazy, Apple buying back $150 billion of its own shares, and all this news, why would the Nikkei be so weak? The initial trigger for the Nikkei and Dow's sharp declines was the U.S. bond yield issue, right? And that seems to have been resolved. So, the Dow is rising, right? But why is the Nikkei so weak? Intuitively, I thought, "Maybe the whales (like GPIF or mutual funds) are shorting ETFs?" And if that's something they could do, then if smart folks at the Ministry of Finance realized that selling Japanese stocks could facilitate yen appreciation, it's a means of stealth intervention they could pursue. So, it might be wise to prepare for the possibility of selling Japanese stocks, as when it comes, they'll do anything, as we've clearly seen with this intervention.

３．Ultimately, who benefited from the intervention?

Now, shall we gradually delve into the main topic? Who benefited from this intervention? That's the question. Obviously, it's not just the dumbasses shorting the dollar (speculators and short-term investors), but primarily, the yen converted into the Bank of Japan's current deposits should count as unrealized gains, right? According to reports, considering the time when the dollar was bought was around 80 yen, they've cashed in around 9 trillion yen at roughly double that rate, meaning close to 18 trillion yen has flowed into the national treasury when combined with the previous intervention. At first glance, this might seem like a good thing.

"But where does that 18 trillion yen go?" you might wonder. You're all intelligent readers, so let me enlighten you—it becomes dollars. Yes, it becomes dollars, eventually. So, this intervention? Utterly meaningless. That's right, it's a waste, the King of Waste, trash upon trash, the pinnacle of futility.

Firstly, experts might say or think, 'The Japanese government should put this 18 trillion yen to good use.' But you see, that's just not possible for the Japanese government. They're more concerned about how to counter or appease the United States rather than belittling their own citizens. After all, they're the defeated nation.

The surprise attack of the currency intervention was successful. With the profit from the previous intervention, we've made 18 trillion yen. The Bank of Japan's current deposits have increased. Bravo, congratulations, right? Except, it doesn't quite work like that. If someone were to say, 'You've gained 18 trillion yen, well done. Now, buy more U.S. bonds, please,' it's just an invitation for extortion. That's why it's meaningless, this nominal unrealized gain of 18 trillion yen. It's just a localized skirmish. In the grand scheme of things, it's a profit that means nothing. Honestly, when I see people praising Kanda like he's invincible after these interventions, I can't help but think they've lost their minds. Remember back in World War II, there was this guy named Tetsuzo Iwamoto, known as the 'Ace of Aces' because he supposedly shot down 202 enemy aircraft? Despite being hailed as an incredible talent, in the end, Japan was left in ruins by two atomic bombs. There must have been countless fools back then, shouting, 'Ace of Aces! Imperial Japan! Victory is assured in World War II!' And I can't help but draw parallels to those deluded individuals when I see the Kanda adulation, I mean, the Kanda accolades, this time around.

No, I mean, Mr. Kanda is undoubtedly talented, right? But if you look at the event itself, where this decision is ultimately driven by public opinion or pressure from the government, this kind of personal intervention, this meaningless intervention, is nothing short of crap. If people were calmly observing the facts, it would be one thing, but there are seriously so many idiots out there shouting, 'Kanda is unbeatable! Long on the yen is the only way!' Most of these guys, they immediately switch to long on the dollar and end up just scraping by. Seriously, they should just quit trading because they have no sense.

That's how much I think, 'No one benefited from this intervention,' but if I had to mention one group of people who seem to have benefited, it would be these folks:

Reference 5) Three consecutive wins for the opposition party: Mr. Izumi calls for dissolution and general elections, while the LDP experiences a complete loss, aiming for a 'recovery of trust'

In essence, considering how badly the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost, including in the Tokyo 15th district, there's a possibility that public pressure was also at play, pushing for some kind of yen depreciation strategy. If the LDP's approval rating slightly recovered due to Mr. Kanda's performance, for example, it's plausible. So, the only winner of the intervention could be the people in the LDP. And since there are smart people within the LDP, they might have pushed something like, "Even if we intervene, it just changes the currency in the Bank of Japan's account, so the U.S. won't get angry. What's more important now is to give the impression that we're addressing yen depreciation. Please, we're counting on you," sort of plea. Because, even if the Bank of Japan's current account is converted to yen and the yen-denominated net assets increase, there's no way the Ministry of Finance can use that for the benefit of the people (not being sarcastic), and ultimately, due to pressure from the U.S., they'll invest in "U.S. Treasuries or equivalent securities," so the flow of buying dollars and selling yen will inevitably occur.

"Could it be that this was a coordinated intervention with consultation and prior coordination with the administration, even obtaining permission from Yellen?" some astute readers of this article might ponder. Indeed, it's not an implausible notion. However, in the midst of Japan supplying substantial funds to U.S. stocks through the new NISA, it's inconceivable that Yellen would tolerate a yen appreciation that would undoubtedly be detrimental to Japanese stocks (and the U.S.). There might have been some exchange between someone within the Fed and Mr. Kanda, but that's about it. So, eventually, pressure from the U.S. might come, like, "Hey, it seems some yellow monkey intervened on its own and made 18 trillion yen, so let's grab a piece of it; if you resist, we'll have the media bash you," and ultimately, whether it's in the form of subsidies or U.S. Treasuries, something will be taken away. At that point, the flow of selling yen and buying dollars will resume, so even though 18 trillion yen was profitably cashed out, funds will once again be exposed to casino risks. Rinse and repeat. Therefore, as I've said many times, intervention is meaningless. It's just futile.

４．The Most Important U.S. Policy

The release of significantly poor figures in yesterday's employment statistics might have provided relief to the market, as it suggests that the stage is set for a rate cut.

Reference 6) April U.S. Employment Statistics: Employment Increases Month-on-Month but Falls Well Below Market Expectations

The employment statistics, while increasingly seen as material prepared for events, still hold significance in how they prompt reactions, such as the recent calming effect on the U.S. stock market. As discussed in the previous column regarding brand value, there's a growing consensus emerging in the market: "Given the deteriorating economic conditions (stagflation), there's sufficient reason to consider rate cuts, without significantly diminishing the (dollar's) brand value."

The factor behind the sharp decline in Japanese and U.S. stocks stemmed from the lack of response to rising yields. However, as the employment statistics worsened, a sentiment emerged suggesting, "We can't raise rates, and instead, let's consider lowering them to somewhat heat up the economy." For U.S. stocks, this was fortunate timing, especially with Apple's aggressive announcement of a 15 trillion yen buyback, adding to the momentum. In other words, there was a very high potential for the return of the mode where "anyone could make money by buying Japanese stocks," similar to that time. The key here is that the potential was high.

You might ask, "So, has the scenario changed?" Well, no, it hasn't. It's just that there's a delayed effect now. Why? Because of the yen's strength. Because of intervention. It's quite clear that intervention put a damper on the revival of Japanese stocks. Imagine if it drops 5% from its high of 160 yen to 152 yen. For the Nikkei average, that's around 2,000 yen, not exactly comparable in absolute terms, but that's the negative effect of intervention, seen as a remote cause. And yet, there are traitors to the nation, like goblins, who rejoice at this and say, "The ace pilot! The best!" Can you believe this? This is a story of modern, contemporary nations.

Returning to the topic, the United States, after struggling to raise rates, was confronted with the collapse of SVB, which underscored the fact that "banks collapse when inflation advances." Initially, the situation was such that they thought, "Since Japan is the only one doing quantitative easing, let's raise rates and get ahead, and then continue to support the dollar through the carry trade with the yen." So the United States must have been taken aback. Subsequently, despite positive economic indicators, there was a risk of banking collapse due to excessive inflation, prompting attempts to mitigate it with rate cuts, which proved challenging. Now, with the recent moderation in employment statistics and yield effects, the United States is finally in a position where the risk of rate hikes has diminished, and rate cuts can proceed at a reasonable pace. In the midst of this, do you think it would be acceptable to claim that Japan alone successfully curbed inflation by raising rates? Absolutely not; such an idea is absurd.

From the American perspective, it would be troublesome if a subsidiary kept buying the dollar, so they wouldn't want interest rate hikes to eliminate the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. If the reason for buying the dollar disappeared, right? Therefore, monetary policies in Japan and the United States are limited to buying the dollar, meaning that ultimately, Japan's net assets in its current account will only become US Treasury bonds. Therefore, any intervention is meaningless, and ultimately, it just aligns with the intentions of the United States. Besides, intervening at 152.8 yen would only move the rate by 5%, and a currency whose intervention timing is unpredictable won't be trusted by sovereigns, and there's no way a rural socialist country's currency would become popular.

５．If you're going to intervene anyway

So, ultimately, even if the Bank of Japan's current account increases due to intervention, if it's going to be swallowed up by the United States in the end anyway, then the real patriot is the one who suggests, "Let's dump everything into Bitcoin ETFs." How many could you buy with a trillion yen? Maybe 100,000? That's awesome! With 9 trillion or 18 trillion yen, you could buy 900,000 to 1.8 million bitcoins, right? That's like 5-10% of the entire Bitcoin market. So, let's buy Bitcoin, Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials. Buy Bitcoin when you make a profit from exchange rate differences. If the U.S. pushes you? The excuse is simple. "We want to keep buying U.S. bonds in the future, so we'll keep investing, okay?" That's it. Yellen will be okay with that. Oh, Yellen doesn't like Bitcoin? Then, after Trump becomes president, let's get approval directly from Mr. Aso.

If Bitcoin were to reach 100 million yen or 1 billion yen, having 1.8 million coins would result in astronomical figures, right? Like 180 trillion yen or 1,800 trillion yen? If you have time to bully the strong (a jealous society), why not do this and hit a home run with 180 trillion yen? Once this is decided, from a primitive nation dominated by Jomon people to an advanced modern state surpassing Switzerland, it will undergo a transformation in one fell swoop. Because everyone is ultimately troubled by inflation, right? The cause of inflation is the massive issuance of paper currency by central banks, isn't it? The currency that stands in direct opposition to that is Bitcoin, right? So even if the yen dies first and the dollar dies next, Bitcoin will still be there. So, all of you readers out there, let's keep going with long positions in USD/JPY, patriotic long positions in the Nikkei Average, and semi-permanent long positions in Bitcoin. The key is to steadily accumulate. Dreaming of USD/JPY at 360 yen, the Nikkei Average at 100,000 yen, and Bitcoin at 400 million yen. Or rather, it's not just a dream but simply a milestone.

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