There's deviation lying between Michael Pineda's stats and his actual game

1.Introduction

As a Yankees fan, I had high expectations of Michael Pineda since he was traded for Jesus Montero by one-on-one trade.
He had a terrific season in his MLB debut year, and everyone must've been excited about adding flame-throwing future ace to the rotation.
Today I want to dig deep and analyze his stats to talk about the trap hidden in his number.

2.Outline

Let's go over his 4-year stats with the Yankees quickly.
(He got injured and sidelined for two years, so the actual length with the Bombers are six years)

First-year he showed off his talent. Although it was only a small sample size of 76.1innings, He recorded 1.89 ERA 8.43 K/BB 0.9 BB/9, displaying his superb control of the ball.
If you look closely into the stats, you could tell that he was pretty lucky by recording BABIP.233 LOB 80.4% HR/FB 5.4% but still an excellent record, and some people could argue that it was worth waiting two years of rehab.
But unfortunately, he once again got injured mid-season and been shut down for the remainder of the season.
In the next 3-years, which we will look at, his ERA was all above 4.37 and wasn't so impressive.
His highlight with the Yankees is obviously his outing against the Orioles on Mother's day(May.10,2015). He recorded 16 Ks in 7innings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDQ_tGL7yEQ
Other than this game, he showcased his ace potential occasionally, but couldn't stabilize it through the year.

3.Main Context

The main topic that I want to discuss today isn't about why Michael Pineda wasn't able to blossom as an ace. I would instead bring out problems with sabermetrics which we can't read off his stats.
If you have a brief idea of what sabermetrics is, you would probably know what FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) is. Still, we will go over the definition and what its calculation looks like.
"FIP is statistics that estimate a pitcher's run prevention independent of the performance of their defense. FIP is based on outcomes that do not involve defense; strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs allowed."
(Referenced from Fangraphs https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/fip/)

and its calculation is
FIP＝（13×HR＋3×（BB?IBB＋HBP）?2×K）÷IP＋FIP constant

Now, if we compare Pineda's ERA with FIP between 2015 and 2017,
2014:ERA 4.37 FIP 3.34
2015:ERA 4.82 FIP 3.80
2016:ERA 4.39 FIP 4.66
you could notice that there's a 1point difference between his 2014,2015 ERA and FIP.
What is the cause of this massive gap?
If you resolve the formula for FIP, its structure is straightforward. It will output a better number than the actual ERA if you limit home runs, produce many strikeouts, and reduce walks.
Looking at Michael Pineda's games, his control is excellent. But the problem here is that his command is not decent, meaning he cannot throw into corners or avoid pitches in the middle.
His pitch arsenal for fastball and cutter looks like this (above:2014 bottom:2015)

You could see that the red part all converges to the middle to the outside part of the plate and where you call it belt high.
When he is hot, his quality of the pitch prevents runs, but when he is cold, he's unable to avoid hard-hit balls, which is the main reason why his ideal way of pitching(High K/9 lowBB/9)isn't precisely leading to his ERA.
And this is the flaw of FIP.
Michael Pineda's HR/9 is at a high rate because of the Yankee Stadium, but due to the elite level of K/BB, his FIP looks decent.
Thus, when you try to evaluate the future without much effort, looking at his FIP and concluding that he will bounce back is very dangerous.

4.Application

By leaping this idea, we may develop a new analytics method.
A strike that was just left in the zone and a strike that tried to contest the batter is very different, but they both would be recorded as the same strike on data.
But we may be able to decide what's the most efficient pitch selection as well as where the course is by scaling each pitch based on the pitches throw before and after, the count and the run difference.
As described in the word "Art of pitching.", it is more like art rather than math. Thus this area of the game is remained unknown due to the structure of the pitching.
Therefore we could assume it as a new potential to the analytics of baseball.

5.Ending

Thank you very much for reading my article.
If you have any comments or advice, please contact my Twitter by DM or reply. I'll see you next time.