2024/8/22 投資ネタ

UG
#S Wells Fargo Upgrades $S to Overweight, Raises PT to $29 from $19
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ引上げ
--ﾏｰｹｯﾄｼｪｱをCRWDから奪う
--ﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝも強くｼｪｱ拡大継続
-2Q以内に黒字化
#EL Piper Sandler Upgrades $EL to Overweight, Raises PT to $114 from $95
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--経営陣後退はﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
--ﾀﾞｳﾝｻｲﾄﾞが限定的
#CROX Williams Capital Upgrades $CROX to Buy, Raises PT to $163 from $135
-Sidney Sweeney採用で若者の求心力拡大
--HEYDUDEの売上見通し上方修正
#UL upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA at 72
-売上成長率/SSS加速見込み
--ﾏｰｹｯﾄｼｪｱ拡大/売上ﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑの強さ
-ｱｲｽ部門の切り離しもﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ

DG
#URBN downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Telsey Advisory at 44
-SSS下振れはﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄによるﾏｰｼﾞﾝｺﾝﾄﾛｰﾙは評価
#TJX downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi at 128
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙがWMTよりも高い

earnings
#WSM Shares Drop on Disappointing 2Q Revenue Drop - MW
〇:Q2EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q2売上/FY25売上(lowered)
-SSS -3.3% vs -2.5%e
-家具市場は不況
--経済的不透明性/転居減少
--2H回復期待を取り下げ
#AAP sells Worldpac unit to Carlyle Group for $1.5 bln, cuts FY results forecast - Reuters
〇:Q2売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q2EPS/FY24売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ・EPS(lowered)
#WDAY
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ/FY25ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞの伸びが弱い
--顧客層拡大の苦戦
--既存顧客のｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ継続
-FY26/27はｻﾌﾞｽｸﾘﾌﾟｼｮﾝ成長率15%見込み
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝも拡大見込み
--ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ:
#ROST
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q3EPS・SSS/Q4EPS・SSS
-SSS +4% vs +3%e
-在庫 +8.3%/予想以上
-低所得者層のﾌﾟﾚｯｼｬｰ継続
--2Hの見通しは保守的
#CAVA
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA
-SSS +14.4% vs +7.5%e
--FY24のSSS見通し引上げ

個別株
#SCHW falls as TD Bank prices $2.5B shares sale - SA
TP関連
#NVDA Citi sees Nvidia shares making fresh 52-week high post earnings
-ｻﾌﾟﾗｲ制約の中売上は1Bﾋﾞｰﾄ見込み
-B200のｺﾒﾝﾄでFY25の成長に対する確信も持てる
#MSFT Citi Reiterates Buy Rating on $MSFT with PT of $500
-Azureの使用量成長率はYoY+35%でQ3と同程度
-Azureの使用量見通しは保守的
#MU price target lowered to $175 from $185 at Susquehanna
-11月期のDRAM/MANDの出荷はQoQで横合い
-ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞは中間ｻｲｸﾙの修正中
#DELL price target lowered to $150 from $180 at BofA
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ引下げ
-ﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒﾝﾀﾙは良好
-下落したことでﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ的にも買いやすい
#WMT price target raised to $80 from $78 at Evercore ISI
-JD株売却を反映
#TJX price target raised by several firms
-ｼｪｱ拡大継続
-Q3のﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑも堅調
#ADI price target mixed
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽがほぼｲﾝﾗｲﾝ
--通常の季節性を上回っておりﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄは示唆
-ﾁｬﾈﾙ管理/資本還元などはﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-自動車の弱さはネガティブ
#TGT price target raised by several firms
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大がﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-シクリカル商品の改善
-ﾏｸﾛ環境は不透明なまま
--在庫を絞ることで対応
#LULU price target lowered by several firms
-Q2がｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ下限以下
-FY24EPSｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽも引き下げ見込み
-新商品撤回でﾏｰｼﾞﾝなど悪化見込み
#CRWD Jefferies Raises PT on $CRWD to $315 from $300
-新顧客のARRは-2%見込み
#SNOW price target lowered by several firms
-YoY30%の成長は過去2四半期からは減速
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引上げはﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
--ｺｱﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽが牽引/ﾃｯｸ・金融を中心に顧客層拡大
--使用量増加
-ﾊｯｷﾝｸﾞ懸念は契約更改などに影響を与えていない
#SNPS price target raised to $663 from $661 at Baird
-ｱｯﾌﾟﾌﾛﾝﾄ商品が牽引
--verification/IP共に強い
#TOL price target raised by several firms
-ﾓｰｹﾞｰｼﾞ低下の中での受注改善は好感
--QTDのﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞも良好
-ｽﾍﾟｯｸの増加は売上成長率の制約
-土地の取得ｺｽﾄもﾏｰｼﾞﾝ維持の重石に
#CNC price target raised to $98 from $90 at Barclays
-2025のMedicaidのﾚｰﾄ上昇期待
--ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大に寄与
#ORLY price target raised by several firms
-ｱﾌﾀｰﾏｰｹｯﾄは悪くない
-経営陣のﾄｰﾝもﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#PSA price target raised to $374 from $327 at Barclays
-占有率と賃貸ﾚｰﾄを引下げ
--2Hの需要が想定より弱い
#COTY price target lowered to $10 from $11 at Barclays
-ﾏｽ層/ｴﾝﾄﾘｰﾚﾍﾞﾙの高級化粧品に注力
#URBN price target lowered by several firms
-SSSが3部門すべてﾐｽ
-8月に入り客足鈍化/販促増が必要
--拡大したﾏｰｼﾞﾝが棄損する可能性
-在庫も計画以上
#CZR price target raised to $59 from $58 at JMP Securities
-core資産で5x以下のlease-adjusted leverage達成見込み
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが割安
#PVH price target lowered to $133 from $144 at BofA
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ見直し
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽの維持/欧州の悪化ﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞの減速確認で上を目指せる
#SLG price target raised to $62 from $59 at BofA
#VNO price target raised to $35 from $26 at BofA
-Office REITはQ2決算でﾐｽなし
-利下げも追い風に

マクロ・債券
(米国)
Global semiconductor sales surged 27% YoY in Q2 2024, and are projected to jump another 29% in Q3, surpassing record highs from 2021, driven by AI demand and rebounding electronics sales.
U.S INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 232K VS 227K PREVIOUS; EST 232K
U.S CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 1863K VS 1864K PREVIOUS; EST 1870K
CHICAGO NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX ACTUAL -0.34 (FORECAST 0.03, PREVIOUS 0.05)
S&P Flash PMI Mfg. 48 (Est. 49.6)
S&P Flash PMI Services 55.2 (Est. 54.0)
US EXISTING HOME SALES ACTUAL 3.95M (FORECAST 3.94M, PREVIOUS 3.89M ,REVISION 3.90M)
KANSAS CITY FED COMPOSITE INDEX ACTUAL -3 (FORECAST -9, PREVIOUS -13)
(欧州)
FRENCH SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 55 (FORECAST 50.3, PREVIOUS 50.1)
FRENCH MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 42.1 (FORECAST 44.5, PREVIOUS 44.0
GERMAN SERVICE PMI FLASH ACTUAL 51.4 (FORECAST 52.3, PREVIOUS 52.5)
GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 42.1 (FORECAST 43.4, PREVIOUS 43.2)
EUROZONE SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 53.3 (FORECAST 51.7, PREVIOUS 51.9)
EUROZONE MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 45.6 (FORECAST 45.8, PREVIOUS 45.8)
EUROZONE COMPOSITE PMI FLASH ACTUAL 51.2 (FORECAST 50.1, PREVIOUS 50.2)
ユーロ圏の賃金上昇鈍化、ＥＣＢの追加利下げを後押し
EUROZONE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FLASH ACTUAL -13.4 (FORECAST -12.6, PREVIOUS -13.0)
(その他)
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 48.7 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 47.5)
AUSTRALIAN SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 52.2 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 50.4)
JAPANESE MFG PMI FLASH ACTUAL 49.5 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 49.1)
JIBUN BANK JAPAN AUGUST SERVICES PMI: 54.0
JAPANESE CHAIN STORE SALES YOY ACTUAL -1% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 5%)
UK SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 53.3 (FORECAST 52.8, PREVIOUS 52.5)
UK MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 52.5 (FORECAST 52.2, PREVIOUS 52.1)