WISHING"Road To Recovery" 01/07/21(1)オリンピックまでに集団免疫は可能か?Future trends depend on vaccination simulation







Winning or losing a game largely depends on the ability to prepare for multiple scenarios and respond quickly. What is needed for this is the ability to simulate. Conversely, whether it is an exam or a battle, the winner is already determined when the superiority of simulation skills becomes apparent.

It has become clear that actual vaccination will not proceed as planned. It is estimated that the first dose of vaccine required in the U.S. for herd immunity will not be completed until late summer or fall, and that herd immunity will not be effective until the end of the year (441).

If 70% of the Japanese population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, 84 million people would need to be vaccinated twice each, or 168 million doses. Covering this with only Pfizer or Moderna vaccines would require the deployment of special freezers, which would not be possible using the nationwide clinic infrastructure that can complete 60 million flu vaccines in two to three months.

The total number of junior high schools in Japan is about 10,000. Assuming we set up one mass vaccination site per school district, we would need 16,800 vaccinations per school district. It is up to human decision-making to determine the number of hours per week that can be allocated to each doctor on a temporary basis, but let's say that two doctors work five days a week, one in charge of pre-vaccination and one in charge of intramuscular vaccination. If we were to do 100 vaccinations a day in a few hours, it would take 33.6 weeks, 235 days, or 7.8 months. 200 vaccinations at a time would only take half that time, but it would be doubtful if it could be done continuously with two doctors.

Therefore, unless Oxford and other vaccines that can be administered in clinics can be approved and supplied at an early stage, the acquisition of herd immunity before the Olympics will be a pipe dream.

Simulation of feasible vaccination is one of the top priorities right now, as it is necessary to know the efficacy of the vaccine and the most optimistic scenario of a trouble-free vaccination.



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